BCB After Dark: What about Yusei Kikuchi?

The late-night/early-morning spot for Cubs fans asks you about free agent left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.

Welcome back to BCB After Dark: the grooviest gathering of night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. Please come on in out of the autumn chill. There’s no cover charge this evening. We still have a few tables available. Let us know if we can do anything to make your stay more enjoyable. Bring your own beverage.

BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.

Last night, I asked you where you thought Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki would sign. I really admire your optimism around here, because 37 percent of you think he’ll be a Cub. That’s a lot more optimistic than I am. Another 31 percent thought he’d sign with the Dodgers, which is the general assumption of where he’s going to sign. Another 22 percent said the Padres, whom I think are the second favorites after the Dodgers.

On Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, I don’t normally do a movie essay. But I always have time for jazz, so those of you who skip that can do so now. You won’t hurt my feelings.

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Drummer Roy Haynes died earlier today at the age of 99. Haynes has been around so long that he played with Charlie Parker and he saw jazz go from bebop to cool to post-bob to fusion and beyond. Haynes was better known as a sideman than as a bandleader in his own right, which meant that he didn’t get as much fame as contemporaries like Max Roach and Art Blakey. But Haynes was always more about the music than the attention.

Here’s Haynes on David Letterman in 2013. Just remember, he’s 88 years old in this video and he’s still playing this energetically. Jaleel Shaw is on saxophone, Martin Bejerano (who posted this video) is on piano and David Wong is on bass. (I originally typed “on base.” We must be in extra innings.)

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Welcome back to those of you who skip all that jazz.

Jeff Passan posted this article previewing the Hot Stove (ESPN+ sub. req.) and while there is a lot of good stuff in there, I think some people online have been reading too much into some off-hand comments Passan threw in there. But he did make a comment that connected the Cubs to Yusei Kikuchi, the 33-year-old left-hander who turned his career around after a trade deadline deal to Houston this past season.

Now again, I don’t want to read too much into Passan’s comment. He just listed the Cubs as a team that “could” be interested in Kikuchi. He’s not reporting on any inside information he may have gotten. In any case, the Cubs, under current team president Jed Hoyer, have been awfully tight-lipped about who their offseason targets are. They were barely connected to Shōta Imanaga last year before the announcement of his signing and the Craig Counsell hiring came out of the blue. So this is speculation, not reporting.

Still, Kikuchi makes a lot of sense. His career after being posted by the Seibu Lions had been disappointing up until this past season. He was one of the best pitchers in Nippon Professional Baseball up until he came over to MLB in 2019. He signed with the Mariners and was distinctly mediocre, despite getting a All-Star nod in 2021 because of a strong first-half that was followed by a poor second-half. Seattle let him leave as a free agent after three seasons without much of a fight. He signed a three-year deal with the Blue Jays and was slightly better there than he was in Seattle. He struggled in 2022 with Toronto before having the best season of his MLB career in 2023, going 11-6 with a 3.86 ERA. But he was back to his old ways in 2024 when he went 4-9 with a 4.75 ERA over 22 starts in Toronto. The Blue Jays traded him to Houston at the deadline this past season.

But the Astros seemed to see something in Kikuchi that Seattle and Toronto didn’t. He always had an explosive fastball, but hitters could key on it because his secondary pitches weren’t as good. But the Astros told Kikuchi to stop throwing his curve and instead told him to throw his slider instead, which had been a distant third pitch. He now throws his slider almost as much as his fastball. It’s a good pitch.

The results were dramatic. Kikuchi’s strikeouts went up and the fly ball rate went down. Kikuchi was dominating down the stretch in Houston, making ten starts and going 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA. While it was a small sample size, Kikuchi had a career-high strikeout percentage of 31.8 percent in Houston.

So if a team gets the pitcher Kikuchi was in Houston, they’re getting a very, very good number two or number three pitcher. If Houston actually figured out how to maximize his arsenal, then Kikuchi very likely has become the pitcher that the Mariners thought they were getting in 2019.

On the other hand, if that was just a small-sample size and that the league is going to figure out his new repertoire eventually, then Kikuchi becomes an expensive number-four starter whose on the wrong side of thirty.

So should the Cubs try to sign Yusei Kikuchi? On the plus side, there’s a lot of potential upside there for someone who likely won’t cost that much. Fangraphs estimated that he’s probably sign for around three years and $51 million. I think that’s a little low on the dollar amount, but not by much. Three years and $56 million would probably do it.

The other issue with Kikuchi is that he’s left-handed, so if you’re worried that the Cubs rotation might become too left-handed with Justin Steele and Imanaga, then maybe you think the team should go in a different direction. On the other hand, quality pitching is quality pitching no matter what hand they throw with and Kikuchi did not have much of a platoon differential last season.

Another reason to sign Kikuchi is that he has a really cute son, Leo, who really loves his mother a lot. At least a lot more than Yusei.

That’s just a cute moment for the evening.

So should the Cubs try to sign Yusei Kikuchi?

Thank you for stopping by this evening. We’re always glad to see you. Please tell your friends about us. Get home safely. Recycle any cans and bottles. Tip the waitstaff. And join us again tomorrow for more BCB After Dark.