The late-night/early-morning spot for Cubs fans asks if the Cubs should extend Justin Steele.
It’s another night here at BCB After Dark: the grooviest gathering of night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. We’re so glad you could join us this evening. Please come in out of the cold. There’s no cover charge this evening. We still have a couple of good tables available. Bring your own beverage.
BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.
Last evening, I asked you about the possibility of the Cubs signing veteran free agent Max Scherzer. The vote was close as 39 percent of you gave it a “Yay!” and 35 percent of you gave it a “Nay!” The other 26 percent were “meh” about the whole thing.
Our sympathies go out to the friends and family of Brian Matusz. He wasn’t a Cub for long, but he was a member of the 2016 Cubs and he’s got a World Series ring for that.
Here’s the part where we listen to music and talk movies. You’re free to skip ahead if you want. You won’t hurt my feelings.
Tonight we’re featuring an NPR Tiny Desk concert from 2022 featuring Brazilian pianist and vocalist Eliane Elias. Marc Johnson is on bass, Rafael Barata plays the drums and Leandro Pellegrino is on guitar.
So a little warm weather music for a cold night.
Just a reminder that you still have time to vote in the BCB Winter Hitchcock Classic and our matchup of Notorious (1946) and Shadow of a Doubt (1943). As I write this, the vote is very close. I love both movies.
Coming up tomorrow, Strangers on a Train (1951) faces off against Frenzy (1972). Both films are on Criterion—and they do have a free 7-day trial. Both films are also available for rent.
Welcome back to those who skip the non-baseball stuff.
We’re getting into arbitration season, which means that the Cubs and those players with more than two years of experience and less than six with go through a dance to see how much they’re going to get paid in 2025. Usually what happens is that the Cubs offer a contract, the player rejects it and then they go to arbitration. Next, the Cubs submit a more realistic contract offer, the player submits a number they’d be willing to sign for and then they end up agreeing to a deal for somewhere in the middle before the case actually reaches the arbiter. I believe the last Cubs player to actually go to arbitration was Ian Happ in 2021.
This is just a long and windy way of bringing up the fact that left-hander Justin Steele is arbitration-eligible. Now Steele won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2027 season when he’s 31 years old. But one way to avoid having to deal with this arbitration matter every year between now and then is to sign Steele to a contract extension right now. This would benefit the Cubs because they would know how much they will have to budget for Steele over the next three years. It would benefit Steele because it would give him guaranteed money in case of an injury or a decline in production.
Of course, there are risks for both side. Should Steele get injured or suffer a severe decline in production, the Cubs are stuck paying him more than he’d get in arbitration. And of course, it goes the other way for Steele. Were he to take a step forward and becomes a top pitcher in the league, he’d be making well under what he could make in arbitration. And if the extension buys out a year of free agency, as they often do, it could cost Steele a lot of money on the free agent market down the road.
This article by Patrick Mooney and Tim Britton from last month looks at the possibility of a contract extension for Justin Steele. (The Athletic sub. req) In that article, the suggest that a fair deal for Steele would be a five-year extension for $74 million. That would buy out Steele’s next three years of arbitration and tack on two years of team control for $22 million a year after that.
So should the Cubs do that deal? Would Justin Steele accept it? Steele has been a pretty good pitcher over the past three years, but despite his fifth-place finish in the Cy Young balloting in 2023, he hasn’t been an elite one. He’s also a bit older than most players with only three years major-league experience because injuries, including Tommy John surgery, kept him from making his major league debut until he was 25. So he’s unlikely to get a $150-to-$200 million contract offer as a free agent in 2028 unless he really takes a step forward over the next three seasons. (Or if salaries for starting pitchers explode over that time, I guess.)
Still, it Steele wants to bet on himself, he probably could do better than that if he continues to pitch well. But that would be taking a risk and Steele does have a lot of injuries in his past.
So should the Cubs sign Justin Steele to a five-year, $74 million extension? And would Steele accept it?
Thank you again for stopping in. We’ve enjoyed seeing you. Please get home safely. Stay warm. Tip your waitstaff. And join us again tomorrow evening for more BCB After Dark.