The late-night/early-morning spot for Cubs fans asks if Cole Hamels belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Thank you for stopping by BCB After Dark: the hippest hangout for night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. We’re so glad to see you tonight. Please come in out of the cold. We’ve got a great show for you. There are still a few tables available. Bring your own beverage.
BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.
Last night I asked you about trading for Astros reliever Ryan Pressly. Most of you thought it was a bad idea unless my estimate of the cost was too low, as 79 percent of you voted against it.
Here’s the part where I talk about music and movies. If you want to skip that, be my guest. You won’t hurt my feelings.
Tonight we have a performance from saxophonist Walter Smith III at the Village Vanguard this past October. Jason Moran is on piano, Eric Harland is on drums and Reuben Rogers plays the bass. This is “Point of Many Returns.” It starts out soft and slow and builds up to a big crescendo.
I made a huge mistake in our BCB Winter Hitchcock Classic last night. Instead of matching up Psycho with Spellbound, as the bracket demanded, I matched it up with To Catch a Thief. What happened is that I got a bit ahead of myself as To Catch a Thief is the film that would match up with Psycho had it beaten Spellbound.
I don’t want to throw out your votes and I think there’s an easy way to avoid that. Because Psycho was probably going to be matched with To Catch a Thief anyway, I’m just going to swap To Catch a Thief with Spellbound in the bracket. So should Psycho advance to the next round (and it’s comfortably ahead at the moment), then it will get that matchup with Spellbound in the next round. I hope everyone is OK with that. After the first four films, seeding was pretty arbitrary on my part anyway.
I have more anecdotes about Psycho and I’ll save some of them for later rounds, but there’s one that I wanted to share with you now. Most people are aware of the famous flub in North by Northwest (and if you’re not, we can talk about it in the comments), but there’s an error in Psycho as well.
The film starts out in Phoenix and the title credits clearly say that it’s December 11. But when Tom Cassidy (Frank Albertson) shows up at the real estate office that Marion Crane works in, Tom. starts complaining that it’s a scorcher out there and that he and Marion’s boss should go back into his office where there’s air conditioning. But no one from Arizona ever complains about the heat in December! Not after going through a Phoenix summer!
What happened is that when Marion (Janet Leigh) leaves town, she’s driving a car on a set with moving images of downtown Phoenix projected behind her. A B-unit recorded that footage of Phoenix while Hitchcock remained on set in Los Angeles. Unfortunately, it was December of 1959 and Phoenix was all decorated for Christmas! So Marion drives past all these Christmas decorations on her way out of town. Thus, Hitchcock decided he had to set the film in December, despite those lines about how hot it was out there. Global warming came early, man.
Anyway, you still have until tomorrow to vote for Psycho or To Catch a Thief. Next up, Vertigo takes on The 39 Steps. And I double-checked. It’s The 39 Steps.
Welcome back to everyone who skipped the music and movies.
Today they announced the results of the BBWAA voting for the Hall of Fame and Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner were all inducted. Ichiro and Sabathia went in on the first ballot.
So it’s common to, after the results of this year’s ballot is announced, to look ahead to next year. Unlike this year where Ichiro was a lock to go into Cooperstown on the first ballot and Sabathia was likely, there are no sure-thing Hall of Famers entering the ballot next year.
Matt Snyder took a look at the new candidates for next year’s ballot and most of them don’t seem to have much chance of being elected by the BBWAA. In my opinion, the only one with any real chance (and even then not on the first ballot) is former Cubs pitcher Cole Hamels.
Now should Hamels go to the Hall, he definitely won’t be wearing a Cubs cap, as he just had two years at Wrigley near the end of his career. He’s certainly a Phillie. But looking at Hamels’ career, he has a better case than I thought at first, especially with the way that the traditional benchmarks of a Hall of Fame starting pitcher has fallen by the wayside.
Hamels case for Cooperstown rests on being a four-time All-Star, an NLCS MVP and a World Series MVP as he led the Phillies to the title in 2008. He also has 2560 career strikeouts and had a yearly bWAR over 4 for nine out of ten seasons from 2007 to 2016.
In the traditional benchmarks, Hamels falls short. He only won 163 games. His career winning percentage of .572 is pretty good and is actually better than several Hall of Fame starters like Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton and Don Drysdale. But it’s not even in the top 100 among qualified pitchers. He also never won a Cy Young or ever finished higher than fifth.
But if you compare him to Sabathia, Hamels isn’t far off of that standard and Sabathia flew through on the first ballot. Hamels’ career ERA of 3.43 is much better than Sabathia’s 3.74. Sabathia played four more seasons than Hamels (and really five since one season was his one game for the Braves in 2019 before retiring) and their career bWAR is quite close—61.8 for Sabathia compared to 58.0 for Hamels.
Hamels also had a career value similar to Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle and many people are touting those two for Cooperstown, Yes, both Pettitte and Buehrle had more pitcher wins than Hamels, but do we really value that statistic anymore?
So tonight, I’m just asking “Do you think Cole Hamels belongs in the Hall of Fame?” I don’t care if you think “Yes, but not on the first ballot.” The Hall makes no such distinction. If you wouldn’t vote for Hamels on the first ballot but would on a subsequent one, that means you think Hamels belongs in the Hall.
Much of this is just “Are you a ‘big Hall’ person?” If you are, then your Cooperstown probably has room for Hamels in it because he was a very good pitcher for almost 15 years. Otherwise, you’re probably a no.
Thanks for stopping by. Stay warm out there. Get home safely. Tell your friends about us. Tip your waitstaff. And join us tomorrow for more BCB After Dark.