The Cubs still have a lot of space under the luxury tax. Spend it, Jed.
Now that the deadline for arbitration-eligible players to sign before hearings has passed and Kyle Tucker is the only such Cub unsigned for this year, I thought it would be a good idea to take another look at the 2025 team payroll, projected roster and luxury tax situation.
As usual, The Deputy Mayor of Rush Street has a detailed analysis of the payroll and tax situation, along with information on the roster moves the Cubs have made since our last update, which was posted here a little more than three weeks ago.
First, here are the 2025 salary figures as of this date (for Tucker, we’re using the figure he requested from arbitration, rather than the team offer):
The salaries as listed for the 10 pre-arb players are estimates. As the season gets closer, we’ll usually find numbers for those players reported by various writers and will adjust the above table accordingly.
Before I turn this post over to Dep, a couple of notes:
- The Cubs and Tucker should really come to an agreement before any arb hearing, either on a one-year deal, or preferably a long-term contract that will keep him a Cub for several seasons. Get it done, Jed.
- As you will see, even with the contracts already settled as shown above, the Cubs stand around $40 million under the first luxury tax level. You would think the team could easily afford another large contract, and perhaps after Roki Sasaki chooses his landing point and the free-agent pitching market (or possibly trade market) gets going again, the Cubs will add another starter. One caveat to “easily afford,” however, is the fact that the Cubs’ TV channel, Marquee Sports Network, still does not have a long-term agreement with Comcast/Xfinity, the largest provider in the Cubs’ market territory (covers about 55 percent of the market). Marquee is currently month-to-month with Comcast. I assume a deal will eventually be made; once that happens and the Cubs have more revenue certainty from that TV deal, perhaps more can and will be spent.
The rest of this post is Dep’s analysis.
The 2025 Cubs Roster: Jed Hoyer Resumes Waiting Out the Market (It’s HIS MOVE!)
TOP LINE: I guess I might as well throw my two cents in on Tucker. The failure to come to an agreement on his final arbitration season might not be an optimal start to the relationship, but it’s not personal, Sonny, it’s strictly business. Even if the parties can’t work out a long-term extension deal, Tucker will still get a full season to explore the experience of playing in Wrigley Field, the fanbase, the facilities… and like nearly all free agents, Cub money will be just as good as Met money, or whichever team decides to offer the most lucrative free agent payoff.
My only caution is that Jed Hoyer/the Cubs won’t always have a situation where there are more Top 100 prospects than the team has spots available to play them, so that while spending some of that prospect capital has added spice to the coming season, I think back to when Bill Veeck got one fun 1977 season out of his “rent-a-player” strategy on the south side. It was unsustainable.
So while I’d be disappointed to not retain a difference-making slugger beyond this one season, I seriously doubt an arbitration hearing will get in the way of Tucker giving consideration to a Cub offer. Now looking over the organization to see if they have the commitment to compete for championships? THAT could be the biggest hurdle a Cubs POBO may have to overcome, if the contract offers are roughly similar.
Here’s what’s happened since our last update, after the Tucker and Bellinger trades happened nearly a month ago:
● The Cubs traded Matt Mervis for IF Vidal Bruján
● They signed free agent lefty Caleb Thielbar
● Team Hoyer jumped the waiver queue to pick up righty Matt Festa from Texas (for cash)
● Miles Mastrobuoni was DFA’d to make room on the roster
● The team reached arbitration settlements with all eligible players, except for Tucker
● And last Friday afternoon, the Cubs signed SP Colin Rea to a one-year contract
The Rea signing is just reported, not official at this time — but we’ll go with it. A 40-man roster spot will need to be opened up when the team announces the deal officially.
Current Player Payroll
(Note, these figures are for each player’s ‘cap hit’, the charge against the Cubs’ luxury tax spending level. The base luxury tax threshold is $241,000,000 for the 2024 season.)
Players with Guaranteed Contracts (10+1):
Swanson $25,285,714
Happ $20,333,333
Suzuki $17,000,000
Taillon $17,000,000
Boyd $14,500,000
Imanaga $13,250,000
Hoerner $11,666,667
Kelly $5,750,000
Rea $5,000,000
Thielbar $2,750,000
Bellinger $2,500,000 (cash sent to Yankees, $2.5 million in each of ‘25 and ‘26)
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TOTAL $135,035,714
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Arbitration Players (6, using the higher value for the one unresolved case):
Tucker $17,500,000 – (or $15,000,000 … no options left)
Steele $6,550,000 – (0) SIGNED
Pearson $1,350,000 – (1) SIGNED
Merryweather $1,225,000 – (0) SIGNED
Morgan $950,000 – (1) SIGNED
Thompson $850,000 – (0) SIGNED
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TOTAL $28,425,000
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(Note: The MLB minimum salary for 2025 is $760,000.)
Pre-Arb Players expected to make the 26-man roster (10):
Amaya $780,000 – (0 options left)
Assad $770,000 – (2)
Bruján $767,000 – (0)
Busch $764,000 – (2)
Crow-Armstrong $764,000 – (2)
Miller $763,000 – (0)
Hodge $762,000 – (2)
Canario $761,000 – (0)
Shaw $760,000 – (3 – will need to be added to the 40-man roster)
Workman $760,000 – (3* – as a Rule 5 selectee, the Cubs options are limited in 2025)
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TOTAL $7,651,000
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Pre-Arb Players expected to start in the minors or injured list (16):
Alcantara – (2 options left)
Arias – (2)
Brown – (2)
Caissie – (3)
Cowles – (3)
Festa – (0, meaning he will need to pitch his way onto the 26-man roster in ST.)
Hollowell – (2)
Kilian – (1)
Little – (2)
Neely – (2)
Palencia – (2)
Poteet – (2)
Roberts – (2)
Vázquez – (2)
Wicks – (3)
Zastryzny – (0, meaning he will need to pitch his way onto the 26-man roster in ST.)
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Other Expenses:
40-man Roster Players in Minors $2,600,000
Pension Payments & Sundry Expenses $17,500,000
Cubs’ Share of Pre-Arb Bonus Pool $1,666,667
(Reserve Withheld for Trades/Buffer)¹ $5,000,000
(Reserve for 60-Day IL Replacements)² $3,040,000
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TOTAL $29,806,667
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GRAND TOTAL FOR CAP PURPOSES $200,918,381
FIRST LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD $241,000,000
CUBS STAND UNDER THE TAX BY $40,081,619
¹- Optional Expense, but some amount figures to be held back from wherever Tom Ricketts sets the baseball budget.
² – Estimating four seasons’ worth of MLB minimum players for eight 60-Day IL stints of indeterminate length.
ADJUSTED FOR ACTUAL PAYROLL EXPENDITURES IN 2025
GRAND TOTAL IN CASH OUTLAY $207,132,667
(This figure includes adding $6,214,286 in adjustments between contract payouts and cap valuations, plus contract buyouts for Drew Smyly and David Bote.)
Current Projected Roster – Again, the 40-man roster is currently full.
OF (5): Happ – PCA – Tucker – Suzuki – Canario
IF (6): (Shaw) – Swanson – Hoerner – Busch – Bruján – Workman
C (2): Amaya – Kelly
SP (5): Imanaga – Taillon – Steele – Assad – Boyd
RP (8): Hodge – Miller – Pearson – Morgan – Thielbar – (Rea) – Thompson – Merryweather
(Note: All relievers on this list can ride the Shuttle in 2025 except Miller, Thielbar, Thompson, and Merryweather.)
40-man position players in minors (4) – Kevin Alcantara, Owen Caissie, Ben Cowles, Luis Vázquez.
40-man pitchers in minors (12) – Michael Arias, Ben Brown, Matt Festa, Gavin Hollowell, Caleb Kilian, Luke Little, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Cody Poteet, Ethan Roberts, Jordan Wicks, Rob Zastryzny
Notable non-roster players in minors – Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, James Triantos, Cade Horton.
BOTTOM LINE: In our last update, I was looking at the Tucker and Bellinger trades as helping change the team outlook by (possibly) meaning a 3 WAR (win) gain – if you look this as swapping in a 5 WAR Kyle Tucker for what was a 2.2 WAR Cody Bellinger from last season. Adding WAR in a dramatic trade for a “marquee” player raises the team’s ceiling.
Since that move? It looks to me like Hoyer has been trying to shore up the floor, while waiting for the relief market to shake out.
Vidal Bruján doesn’t have a long track record of success, but he had a good 2024, as utility players go. A repeat of that performance will be fine, so long as he’s not asked to fill in as a starter should some lengthy injury befall an infielder. As of this point, it still leaves no apparent “Plan B” should Matt Shaw not acclimate to The Show in the first half.
Caleb Thielbar as a 38-year old lefty coming off a poor season? Hopefully he rebounds to what has been a fairly successful career. But this one has the feel of looking for a bargain like Hoyer did with Brad Boxberger in ‘23.
And as to the return of Colin “Sunshine” Rea, I’m fine with the move in concept. With Imanaga, Boyd, and Brown all looking at seasons where they figure to get extra rest from time to time, a veteran arm who can fill a swingman role and possibly make 10-15 starts along the way will really help prevent the need for some guys to go on four days’ rest too often.
But none of these recent moves are really pushing the 2025 projection much beyond where it stood a month ago. Perhaps they’re at 86-88 wins, with some room to hope for growth with young players developing as major leaguers. But I don’t think Hoyer is there yet, if he’s looking for a reasonably sure bet to grab a playoff spot.
As for remaining needs, it’s really the same as before, maybe another starting pitcher is down on the list now, but an upper-market back-end bullpen option could still help solidify the endgame, and foremost at this point I’d say is finding some veteran bench player who can start games at third and second if needed. That last one is a hole in the roster with the potential to bite the team hard.