A few thoughts about the Cubs and Kyle Tucker failing to reach agreement before arbitration

This can’t be good. Maybe this relationship will be eventually, but it’s not starting out that way.

As you already know, Kyle Tucker and the Cubs could not come to an agreement on a 2025 salary (thanks to Josh for posting this Thursday evening). Sara’s already posted her thoughts in last night’s BCB After Dark.

As you can imagine, I have an opinion on this major Cubs topic, so here it is to begin your Friday.

First, the numbers:

MLB Trade Rumors’ salary projection, posted last October, had Tucker at $15.8 million. Splitting the difference between the club offer and Tucker’s request would have resulted in a $16.25 million salary.

First: Why is this so hard for Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer? Tucker is clearly a better player than Cody Bellinger and the Cubs just saved $20 million by sending Bellinger to the Yankees (the difference between Bellinger’s 2025 salary and the $5 million the Cubs sent to the Yankees).

There was an old saying about George Halas in his later days of running the Bears, that he “threw nickels around like manhole covers.” This … is like that. This is being cheap for the sake of being cheap, there’s no danger here in going over the first luxury tax number of $241 million.

However.

Second: What we do not know is the state of negotiations between team and player before those numbers were filed. Remember, if this does go to an arbitration hearing the arbitrator can’t split the difference, he/she must choose either the team number or the player’s number. Tucker made $12 million in 2024, his second arb-eligible year, and even though he missed half the season with an injury he still posted a 4.7 bWAR season. Hint, Jed: That’s better than any Cubs player did in 2024 (Dansby Swanson at 4.0 was the Cubs bWAR leader). Tucker has posted multiple 5 bWAR seasons and should do that easily, if not better, in 2025. Health shouldn’t really be a question because Tucker came back from his injury and had an excellent September (.365/.453/.587 with four home runs in 18 games). The injury came from fouling a ball off his shin, not something that would be likely to become chronic.

Incidentally, here’s the play where Tucker was injured [VIDEO].

Third, and just so I inject a bit of positivity here: It is still possible the Cubs and Tucker could come to an agreement on a 2025 contract before his arb hearing, though most teams are “file and trial” these days. In 2023, the Cubs and Ian Happ came to an agreement on a contract for that year and then less than 10 days into that season Happ signed a three-year contract extension. That deal started after the arb agreement, and expires after 2026.

What does that have to do with Kyle Tucker? Nothing, other than the same executive is making the decisions. The other difference, of course, is that Happ had been drafted by the Cubs and spent his entire professional career in the Cubs organization. The Cubs don’t have that history with Tucker.

Obviously, this is not the way we’d like the relationship between the Cubs and Tucker to begin. It is still possible the team and player could negotiate a deal for 2025; it’s also possible they could work out a long-term deal, though that doesn’t seem likely.

I guess I’ll just wrap this by saying: If Tucker wanted $17.5 million for 2025, Hoyer and the Cubs should have just given it to him. They still could and avoid the hearing.

As always, we await developments.