A Cubs fan’s guide to the postseason: Division Series weekend

There’s a lot of David and Goliath in these matchups

They don’t call it the Wild Card for nothing, folks. It’s’ already been a few ridiculous days of baseball. It started with the Mets bonkers comeback against Atlanta in the first game of a doubleheader to make the postseason. It continued in a win or go home Wild Card matchup between the Mets and the Brewers last night when Pete Alonso hit a go-ahead three-run homer with one out in the top of the ninth against Milwaukee closer Devin Williams.

Someone forgot to tell the Mets that they were supposed to be rebuilding.

Frankly, someone forgot to tell the Tigers that too, and maybe the Royals. It’s set up some absolutely amazing Division Series matchups that will all begin tomorrow, Saturday, October 5.

Tigers vs. Guardians: An unexpected party

The Guardians hold a slight edge against the Tigers this season having won seven of their thirteen matchups. But like so many quirks of the schedule this year, their last game against each other was a while ago. Specifically, July 30, 2024 when the Guardians beat the Tigers 5-0 in Detroit.

However, it’s worth noting that that was the old Tigers. They were 52-57 after that loss, with a .477 winning percentage and a 1.3 percent chance to make the postseason according to FanGraphs. Since that loss to the Guardians the Tigers have been on a tear. Detroit has gone 34-19 — a much more impressive .642 winning percentage that fueled this improbable playoff run.

The Guardians run to win the American League Central was much more frontloaded with a .607 winning percentage up to that last matchup with the Tigers and a .500 record since then.

The playoffs are all about getting hot, and as Tigers manager A.J. Hinch pointed out during Detroit’s Wild Card celebration — someone let the Tigers get hot:

This Tigers team is fueled by a lot of young talent and that’s always fun. Kerry Carpenter has a 167 wRC+ in 133 plate appearances since August 1. Parker Meadows (137), Spencer Torkelson (125) and Riley Greene (124) are all right behind him. Their Wild Card win was fueled by Andy Ibáñez, Justyn Henry-Malloy, Zach McKinstry (yes, that Zach McKinstry) and rookie Colt Keith.

If the Tigers are going to power their way passed the class of the division in the Guardians they are going to need to continue to get extremely lucky in the pitching department. Tarik Skubal might win the Cy Young Award, but Game One is probably going to started by Reese Olson, who had an excellent first half, but only threw 11⅓ innings in the second half.

The Guardians have pitching. Tanner Bibee isn’t going to win the Cy Young but he’s had a good season, throwing 173⅔ innings to the tune of a 3.47 ERA. Importantly, they have more than two starters who can credibly start in this series, with the well-rested Gavin Williams, Matthew Boyd and Ben Lively backing up Bibee. They also have veterans who have been there before including perennial All Star José Ramírez, coming off yet another amazing season where he hit 39 home runs and stole 41 bases while slashing .279/.335/.537.

On paper, it should be all Guardians — but this is the MLB Postseason, and someone let the Tigers get hot.

Mets vs. Phillies: Grimace and vibes

You’ll be forgiven for thinking the Mets weren’t supposed to be a playoff team this year. Lord knows most baseball analysts agreed, especially considering they only got 5⅓ innings from the man who was supposed to be their ace this season, Kodai Senga… but they just announced Senga will start Game 1. That’s definitely a choice. He hasn’t pitched since an inning on rehab assignment for Triple-A Syracuse on Sept. 21.

But the team Boog Sciambi dubbed the “Comeback Kids” Thursday night just keep on winning. If they want to advance to the National League Championship Series, they’re going to need to do it one more time, against a juggernaut of a division rival.

The Phillies won 95 games this season to the Mets’ 89, but like the Guardians that record is pretty frontloaded. Philadelphia’s best month of the season was the 20-7 they put up in May, and while they played impressive, above .500 baseball in August and September the Mets actually played them to a draw in September with both teams going 15-13, and out played them in September with a 17-9 record to Philadelphia’s 15-11.

One of the most consistent starters in baseball, Zack Wheeler, will take the mound in Game 1 for the Phillies, followed by Cristopher Sánchez, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez. The Mets should go in Game 2 with Sean Manaea, but really have already tapped out their starters with José Quintana’s six-inning shutout gem yesterday, and Luis Severino having pitched to a win in Game 1 of the Wild Card round.

The pitching situation tells me that the Mets’ improbable run might be over, but it seems like betting against the Grimace Mets is a bad idea at this point.

Royals vs. Yankees – Man on the moon

Three teams from the American League Central in the Division Series really isn’t how anyone drew it up. As little as a week ago all you heard was that the only reason three teams from the AL Central were in the playoffs at all was the weakness of the White Sox. Then they all won their Wild Card games, and here we are.

The Yankees seem like they should be the favorite. The Yankees always seem like they should be the favorite. And why not? They’ve got Aaron Judge putting up an MVP season that is rivaled only by Shohei Ohtani. They’ve got the second coming of Ted Williams in Juan Soto. Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Luis Gil are a formidable trio of pitchers.

That said, the Yankees are also the team with something to prove here. They haven’t been to, or won, a World Series since 2009. They missed the playoffs completely in 2023. They are supposed to win this series against the Kansas City Royals and this is the playoffs, so we all know you can throw “supposed to” out the window.

Meanwhile, the Royals are sort of playing with house money. An unexpected postseason participant, it’s worth noting that the person with the second most fWAR in baseball behind Judge isn’t Ohtani and his 50/50 glory — it’s Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. And while the team is young and less experienced in the playoffs than their New York counterparts, the heart of their team, ageless wonder Salvador Pérez, has absolutely been there before and can set the tone as well as anyone in baseball.

As for pitching, the Royals starters might actually be better than the Yankees (yes, really). Even though they’ll start number three starter Michael Wacha who’s been solid, if unspectacular with a 3.35 ERA across 166⅔ innings, followed by Seth Lugo who’s had an excellent season with a 3.00 ERA in 206⅔ innings. They will both back up Cole Ragans and a dazzling five-pitch arsenal that features a 95+ mile per hour fastball [VIDEO].

Padres vs. Dodgers – The Hotel California

If Padres vs. Dodgers in the National League Division Series feels like a movie you’ve seen before, well, it’s because it’s definitely a movie you’ve seen before — and recently.

The Padres got the best of the Dodgers with a 3-1 series victory in 2022 and the Dodgers swept the Padres en route to their only World Series win since 1988 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. If I were writing this column in the preseason it would have been advantage Dodgers, by a lot. While the Dodgers did win 98 games, four more than the Padres, this is definitely a time where when you play the games matters.

The Dodgers are riddled with injuries and will likely start rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler in this series. Buehler has really struggled in his return from Tommy John, but pitching leads to injuries and this is just the hand the Dodgers have been dealt.

Speaking of injured pitchers, you could almost hear the groan from San Diego when Joe Musgrove was removed with “elbow tightness” from Wednesday night’s Wild Card game. However, San Diego may still have an edge here without Musgrove. They’ll be able to start Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish and Michael King even if Musgrove isn’t ready to pitch this series.

Both offenses can crush the baseball, and they will look to do so in this series. After Ohtani the Dodgers will stack up Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández and Will Smith, while the Padres will counter with batting champion Luis Arráez, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., a resurgent Jurickson Profar and likely Rookie of the Year Jackson Merrill — here he hits a two-run triple [VIDEO].

It should be a match-up of the ages in Southern California.