The Cubs win a relatively mellow game for a change, 6-2.
One of the byproducts of a stacked early season schedule is that every game has either felt like a playoff game or has been lopsided against the Cubs. A week ago, the Cubs had a laugher in Los Angeles. It was almost two weeks ago that there was a comfortable win at home against the Rangers. The A’s series was fairly uncompetitive. But a full three-quarters of the early schedule has either been tight or a blowout in the wrong direction.
So when games go like this, you have to take a deep breath and enjoy it. That isn’t to say that the game was easy or stress free per se. I’m excited to watch the development of Ben Brown. But that is not easy or comfortable. Al wrote a fair bit about Ben’s Saturday adventure. If you didn’t watch the game, you might glance past Ben’s day. Ben threw four innings and allowed one run on three games. Back in the days of being a box score watcher, you might wonder if he had a minor injury or maybe had been ejected arguing strike calls.
All of Ben’s four innings of work were an adventure. That’s definitely the right word. He has terrific stuff and the sky is surely the limit. But I’m not sure that the ground isn’t the floor. I could see Brown as a star in the league and I can see him as another flushed, talented arm. The skill is there. But there is a lot of figuring things out to be done. At the end of the day, he had an effectively wild, efficient day, albeit one that ended too early because he ran 100 pitches in four innings
It’ll be interesting to see where Ben’s journey eventually leads. To my eye, he has the stuff to be very good. My eye is pretty amateur and I’ve been wrong a lot, so I wouldn’t make any bets on that. But I’m enjoying watching his growth.
On the other side, I’m not sure if it is my imagination, but by about the third inning, Zac Gallen looked increasingly like he had no interest continuing to face the Cubs. I watched without sound, but it looked relatively cold and overcast. The Cubs made him throw 60ish pitches through two innings. He did hang around and throw six innings and do quite a bit of damage control for the Arizona pitching staff. After allowing six runs through two innings, he only needed 13 batters to get through four innings. That saved quite a bit of bullpen for the Diamondbacks.
The Cubs have played an absolutely brutal schedule. It isn’t letting up for a little while yet. But the Cubs are so far acing this test. At 14-9, the Cubs are playing .609 (99 wins) baseball. Even without assuming that the Cubs will just replicate the same level of success against lesser teams as the rigors of the season wear on, this team is on pace to win a division and be identified as one of the best teams in baseball.
I had this team at 91 wins and most of you would have seen me as a bit of a homer with that projection. This offense might be the best since the 2008 Cubs. The defense is excellent. I’m trying to avoid hyperbole, but this seems like the best baserunning Cubs team I’ve ever seen. It’s not just that this team has a lot of guys who can run, but how well coached they are. Be it stealing bases or taking the extra base this team, through what is now about 15% of the season, has been ruthlessly efficient.
The real question will be how the Cubs stack 27 outs. There’s no sugarcoating things. The starting rotation has been somewhere between average and pretty good, but lost one of its best players. The bullpen has been one of the bottom few in baseball. I will comfortably say that this front office, over time, has been good about building bullpens as the season goes on. It will be better than this. But until then, more days than not are going to be tense.
Let’s take a peek at the pitch count data. Due to the outstanding recovery efforts of Zac Gallen, I think the numbers were relatively insignificant. That doesn’t diminish how ruthlessly effective the offense was early, but in totality, the numbers are relatively mundane.
Pitch Count:
- Diamondbacks 146 pitches, 8 innings, 35 batters (18.25 PPI, 4.17)
- Cubs 157 pitches, 9 innings, 38 batters (17.44 PPI/4.13 PPB)
I’m literally daydreaming about days this summer against sixth/seventh starters with depleted bullpens on lesser teams. We shall see.
Three Stars:
- Michael Busch grabs my top spot with two hits, one a homer, and two runs driven in.
- Caleb Thielbar faced six batters and retired them all. Caleb’s FIP drops to 3.81. His career number is 3.38. For a 38-year-old pitcher, I suspect Caleb is about what we’d expect from him.
- There are a bunch of choices for the third slot. Give me Seiya Suzuki with a homer and two runs driven in.
Game 23, April 19: Cubs 6, Diamondbacks 2 (14-9)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Kyle Tucker (.184). 1-4, 3B, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Michael Busch (.098). 2-4, HR, 2 RBI, R
- Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.079). 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.067). 0-4
- Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.046). 1-4
- Kid: Brad Keller (.015). IP, 3 BF, K
WPA Play of the Game: Kyle Tucker batted with a runner on first and no outs in the first inning, the Cubs down one. He tripled for the second consecutive day, tying the score. (.162)
*Diamondbacks Play of the Game: Corbin Carroll homered leading off the game. (.103)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Carson Kelly 207 of 295 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
- Kyle Tucker +10
- Shōta Imanaga/Matthew Boyd/Carson Kelly +6
- Miguel Amaya/Jon Berti +5
- Ben Brown -5
- Nate Pearson/Porter Hodge -6
- Matt Shaw -7
- Dansby Swanson -9
Up Next: The Cubs will try for a home sweep of the Diamondbacks and five wins in six games. Jameson Taillon (1-1, 5.40, 21⅔ IP) starts for the Cubs. Jameson got knocked around by the Diamondbacks in the March 28 loss in Phoenix. He allowed six runs on nine hits in 4⅓ innings. But hey, he didn’t walk anyone. He was pretty effective last time against the Padres. He allowed two runs on four hits over 5⅓ innings in San Diego.
36-year-old right hander Merrill Kelly (3-1, 5.57, 21 IP) starts for the Diamondbacks. Early season numbers can and do sometimes send mixed messages. The former eighth-round pick (251) of the Rays actually has a line that isn’t a mixed message at all. Merrill has three starts that were wins. In those games, including that March 29 game, he’s thrown 17⅓ innings, allowing nine hits and four runs (three earned). In an April 3rd start in New York, the Yankees tagged him for nine runs in just 3⅔ innings. Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisolm and Trent Grisham combined for seven hits and nine runs batted in. Keep an eye on Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch, or the red-hot Pete Crow Armstrong.