A look at Heroes and Goats for the first half of the season.
Emmanuel Clase was awarded the AL Reliever of the Year for 2024 after helping the Guardians reach the playoffs. Clase pitched in 74 games and allowed only 10 runs, five earned, in 74⅓ innings. This was a particularly and uniquely impressive season. He matched those 10 runs allowed with 10 walks allowed. Pair that with 66 strikeouts and we see a dominant season.
I went down the Guardians rabbit hole after seeing that Clase was the AL leader in WPA. Here at Heroes and Goats, our view is always through the lens of WPA. Again, WPA tends to favor run producers, starting pitchers and closers.
How much of an outlier is Clase’s 2024 season? He registered a 6.4 WPA. The next closest pitchers of any variety in 2024 were Cardinals reliever Ryan Helsley and Tigers starter Tarik Skubal. Before the offseason wraps up, I suspect we will be looking at Skubal and the Tigers, another fascinating season.
Going back through history, the last pitcher that eclipsed 5 for WPA was Sandy Alcantara in 2022 for the Marlins at 5.5. The last reliever over 5 was Will Smith for the Giants in 2019 (5.6). Blake Trienen posted a 6.3 for A’s in 2018. We go all of the way back to Zack Britton in 2016 for another 6.4 season (Jon Lester was a 5.0 and Kyle Hendricks a 4.3 that year). The last pitcher to top Clase’s 6.4 was Zack Greinke for the Dodgers back in 2015 (Jake Arrieta was at 5.7).
So we’re talking about a once in a decade type of performance. How does one run that high out of the bullpen? They see leverage situations. A lot of them. Emmanuel Clase threw in 74 games. A whopping 46 of them were classified as high leverage when he entered the game. Only Griffin Jax of the Twins entered into more high leverage situations. Jax saw 49 high leverage games in 72 games pitched.
Of course, just seeing a lot of leverage doesn’t run up a high WPA. But converting 47 of 50 saves does. Clase led the league in saves for the third straight year and also the led the league in relief appearances. He faced 270 batters and allowed only two homers, 39 hits, and those 10 walks we talked about. He hit two batters.
One last thing on Clase before I take you to the first half leaders for the Guardians on Heroes and Goats. Let’s look at the 10 most similar pitchers to Clase through his age 26 season. It’s an impressive group. Rarely do I see a list that contains all players who I know.
- Gregg Olson
- Craig Kimbrel
- Joakim Soria
- Kenley Jansen
- Rod Beck
- Bobby Thigpen
- Jonathan Papelbon
- Chad Cordero
- Bruce Sutter
- Jeurys Familia
Obviously, similarity scores are picking up on the number of saves at a young age. The significant question for Clase is where things go from here. A good number of the players on this list had a relatively short run as dominant closers. On the other hand, there are a couple of guys who are arguably among the best closers of all time. That number one similarity score is Olson, who save 160 games through age 26 and then only saved 57 over the remainder of a 14-year career. He fell off significantly in his age 27 season and didn’t really re-emerge as a closer until his age 31 season.
I know there is some temptation to “sell high” on Clase after these last three seasons. He’s had an extremely heavy workload. Only time will tell.
Through 81 games, let’s look at the top and bottom four in the standings for Cleveland. First, the bottom four.
- SS Brayan Rocchio -21.5
- 2B Andres Gimenez -19.5
- IF Gabriel Arias -16
- SP Triston McKenzie -11
And the top four.
- CL Emmanuel Clase/3B Jose Ramirez +18.5
- RF Will Brennan +14.5
- SP Ben Lively +12
I haven’t cheated and looked ahead. Well, other than looking at his combined numbers over the last 81 games. He threw 36 innings, allowed 18 hits, six walked, and four runs, two earned. It only gets better from here.
Thanks for checking in. I’ll have more for you soon. We will alternate looking at some wild WPA games and looking at big WPA seasons. Anyone who can help point me at some memorable games, particularly ones with wild WPA swings, those are probably the most fun to look at.