A legendary season concludes.
I’ve been writing Heroes and Goats since 2017. In that time, I’ve covered eight seasons of the Cubs and done additional deep dives on the 1969, 1984, 1989 and 2003 Cubs. I’ve also looked at the 2018 Brewers, the 2004 Giants and the 1985 Mets. Now I’ve added the 2024 Dodgers. Unsurprisingly, I’ve looked into some pretty special seasons.
For the eight seasons of the modern Cubs, these are just ordinary seasons. That time period encompasses the slow decline of the championship Cubs and the transition and rebuild that is currently going on. During those seasons, the highest H&G score is +38 by Anthony Rizzo in 2017.
The creator of this concept, Russ LaCroix, wrote this feature for three years from 2014 to 2016. In 2015, Rizzo recorded a +65.5 season, the modern gold standard. That season also saw Jake Arrieta at +51 and Kris Bryant at +39. In 2016, Jon Lester recorded the highest season by a modern Cubs pitcher at +51.5.
Those scores seem out of this world when +35 has been the recent peak. From the historical era, Sammy Sosa had a +67 in 1998. The gold standard season I’ve ever looked at was Barry Bonds’ 2004 season where he recorded a staggering +104.5. J.T. Snow was second at +46.5. For pitchers, the 1985 Mets had Drew Gooden at +62.
So those things are where the bar is. What is the common element? These top players are middle of the lineup guys or starting pitchers. Exactly one reliever has won a season, David Robertson at +22.5 in 2022. Scott Effross (2022) and Adbert Alzolay (2023) have each had a third-place season. This statistic favors middle of the lineup people, starters and leverage relievers.
And that buildup brings us to Shohei Ohtani, the most unusual leadoff hitter who had one of the best seasons in baseball history. With Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw all having injury issues at various points in the year, this deep and talented roster ended up leaning heavily on Ohtani. He played in 159 games and by way of leading off, he led the NL with 731 plate appearances. He led the majors with 134 runs scored. Teoscar Hernandez was second in games played at 154 and plate appearances at 652. Betts was limited to only 116 games and 516 plate appearances.
So we think of this Dodgers team as deep and talented. We think of it as the best team money can buy. And at the end of the day, they rode one horse. That was Ohtani. A trio of Dodgers tied for second in WPA. They are Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who appeared in 18 games), Anthony Banda (48) and Alex Vesia (67). So again, Ohtani carried the offense. Three pitchers tied at +14.
Ohtani reached +60.5 out of the leadoff slot. I suspect that had that production been in the middle of the lineup, he would have chased that season of Bonds. But, with multiple elite hitters (when healthy), they were able to deploy their biggest weapon in that leadoff spot. He led the league in plate appearances. And the net result was that not only did he lead the league in homers and RBI (and also OBP and slugging), but he led the majors with 134 runs scored. He was a prolific run producer and table setter from the leadoff spot.
On the negative end for the Dodgers, Walker Buehler finished last at -26 followed by Bobby Miller -18, Daniel Hudson -17, and Andy Pages -15.5. Some notable Dodgers Freeman -4.5, Betts -9.5, Will Smith +6, Teoscar Hernandez +2.5. Clayton Kershaw in very limited action was -2.5. Tommy Edman was an even 0. Old pal Jason Heyward was -4.5.
Thanks for taking the journey with me. I’ll return soon with more looks at WPA and Heroes and Goats.