The Cubs record their 82nd win in a 1-0 shutout.
That game had to make Cubs fans of a certain age remember games of the 60’s and 70’s. The Reds got a complete game with one run allowed. That’s going to win a game, what, 90 percent of the time? Probably more. Five hits, no walks. Tough break, sir. He allowed one double and it cost him. At 34 years of age, Nick Martinez is out there stating a case for being in the Reds’ rotation in 2025. With a 3.10 ERA and 3.21 FIP, this was easily the best year of his career. He signed a two-year deal with the Reds before the season and they got terrific value out of him.
But this day belonged to Jameson Taillon and the Cubs two most consistent relievers in 2024. Taillon threw seven scoreless, yielding four hits, two walks and one hit batter. With seven innings Friday, Taillon reached 165⅓ innings on the year. As I’ve discussed previously in this space, fewer and fewer pitchers reach that plateau year after year. But Jameson reaches it for the third time in his eight-year career. He finishes the year with a 3.27 ERA and 3.92 FIP.
By ERA, this is Jameson’s best year since his age 26 season in Pittsburgh back in 2018. This was a bit of a different pitcher emerging, though. He had the lowest strikeouts per nine in his career. But he kept the ball in the park better than any year since he left Pittsburgh in 2019. His BABIP allowed was the second lowest of his career and his strand rate the third highest. What we are seeing is a pitcher who has traded strikeouts for weak contact.
In most instances, this is the career saving/extending move that prolongs a pitcher’s career a few extra years. Some of the truly elite pitchers can get by on stuff, but most have to pitch smarter as their career advances. I’m certainly not shoveling dirt on Jameson’s career, but he’ll be entering his age 33 season in 2025. He’s got two years remaining on his Cubs contract and should be a contributor again next year.
In an ideal world, the Cubs will locate another high quality starting pitcher. Taillon realistically slots as the Cubs’ third-best pitcher behind Justin Steele and Shōta Imanaga. Show me a world where Taillon is a fourth starter and I’ll show you another strong season for the Cubs’ rotation. That world also means that guys like Ben Brown can develop towards the bullpen and place less strain on his body and the ability to go full go with some pretty elite stuff for just an inning or two.
The Cubs’ second half surge has been propelled in a big way by the bottom third of their order. For a while their catching duo of Christian Bethancourt and Miguel Amaya, along with the emergence of the bat of Pete Crow-Armstrong, grabbed all of the headlines. But as the season wanes, it is Nico Hoerner grabbing the spotlight. On Friday, we saw this group play small ball and grab a win for the Cubs.
Nico Hoerner got it going with a leadoff double. A PCA sacrifice bunt and an Amaya sacrifice fly netted the lone run of the game. Dating to Aug. 22, Nico has a line of .368/.413/.504 (wRC+ 160). Nico’s been my favorite Cub for a few years. This season has felt disappointing out of him. But this ending stretch is a reminder of just how good he can be. He’s scored 24 runs over this stretch. Batting largely in the bottom half of the lineup, that’s an awful lot of runs. Projecting that out to just a 500 plate appearance season would have him at 96 runs. And, of course, Nico has been a sturdy player going over 600 plate appearances two straight seasons.
Nico has reduced his strikeout rate in 2024 and, with this late push, his other numbers are relatively in line with his normal production. It will always amaze me just how many players will find their way back to typical numbers, even if the route is sometimes circuitous. There isn’t much sign of the emerging power from his 2022 season. But Nico is indeed a sturdy player with a great glove, terrific speed and good contact skills.
I love when he has a game like this. I’ve picked up on some knowledgeable Cubs bloggers suggesting that the second base spot might be one where the Cubs try to upgrade. I see the logic and have repeated it here. But this game reminds me of the other side of the coin and what I’ve been talking about. The next step forward is really hard. You could move on from Nico. You absolutely could find more offensive production out of that position. But if you try to upgrade there, you could belly flop spectacularly.
Right now, your floor at second is a Gold Glove caliber defender with good speed. Even if his bat didn’t produce for a whole season, he’d likely contribute a positive season by WAR. That glove at that position matters that much. And, when you see a decently extended stretch like this, you see that he does have the capability of having a pretty good offensive season if he were ever to get in a groove and stay there.
A team can always add pitching. It’s the “easiest” way to add talent to a team. A team uses so many pitchers that you pretty much can’t reach a point where you have too much of it. The only thing that has me throwing it in quotes there is because that talent is valuable to every team who even remotely thinks they can compete. Heck, even in a rebuilding season, there is value to a workload pitcher to help carry the load for the team. That becomes doubly true because such a pitcher is almost always a decent trade chip at the trading deadline.
The Cubs would benefit from adding another excellent starter. As this year illustrated so well, you may lose one or all of your key starters for stretches of the season. All of Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks spent some time hurt this year along with basically every minor league option behind those four. Add to that the struggles of Kyle Hendricks and basically every starter in the Cubs upper system not named Imanaga lost time.
The team can really use two high quality relievers, preferably one who can be an option to finish games. I see the outline of a decent Cubs pen in the wreckage of a team that blew so many leads that it collapsed from contention. Ideally, there are a lot of young, talented arms that can provide value out of the bullpen. But supporting them with a few known commodities has a ton of opportunity to stabilize the results of this team.
Catcher is the most obvious position to upgrade the Cubs. But like starting pitching, every quality bat at the catcher position is highly coveted. That leaves this team in a position that means that their offensive improvement will have to come from two places. One is the fringes. Ultimately, the Cubs need more bench production than they got out of anyone not named Mike Tauchman. But bench production is less valuable than it was in the pre-DH era.
With a relatively young core, the Cubs can roll out the same eight bats the vast majority of the time. I’d hope the Cubs would rotate some of their young outfielders through the roster next year, utilizing the Iowa shuttle to keep them getting regular plate appearances while trying to break into the lineup.
The other place for potential upgrade of this team is going to be through some kind of trade. Be it Nico Hoerner or Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ, that’s the other potential way to upgrade the team. It’s a scary proposition. But I think it’s important to not hang the entire 2025 offensive outlook of the team on the catcher position, fringe addition to the bench and the assimilation of Isaac Paredes’ bat. I just don’t think that’s enough. The re-emergence of Cody Bellinger’s bat would be one other avenue. But I just don’t know how you can count on that.
I’m fascinated to see the path forward that this organization chooses and then how it works over the next year or two. Looking up and down the roster, this is a really sweet spot in the productivity profile of these players.
Let’s find three stars from a snappy day at the park.
Three Stars:
- This was Taillon’s day. Six baserunners in seven innings is just about always going to get it done. No one got as far as third base for the Reds.
- Kudos to Nico Hoerner. His bat and legs made this game a win for Taillon and the Cubs. He actually had two of the Cubs five hits.
- Porter Hodge threw a perfect ninth for his eighth save. Not bad for a guy who very briefly was at Double-A this season and has emerged as the closer at the big league level.
Game 160, September 27: Cubs 1, Reds 0 (82-78)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Jameson Taillon (.449). 7 IP, 25 BF, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K (W 12-8)
- Hero: Porter Hodge (.158). IP, 3 BF, K (Sv 8)
- Sidekick: Tyson Miller (.118). IP, 4 BF, K, HBP
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.107). 0-3, DP
- Goat: Isaac Paredes (-.061). 0-3
- Kid: Kevin Alcantara (-.055). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: The Cubs turned a double play to end the sixth inning, ending a possible Reds threat. (-.084)
*Reds Play of the Game: Spencer Steer led off the seventh inning with a single for the Reds. (.071)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Previous Winner: Nico Hoerner received 117 of 122 votes.
Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Shōta Imanaga +23.5
- Seiya Suzuki +18.5
- Jameson Taillon +18
- Christian Bethancourt +16
- Porter Hodge +14
- Jordan Wicks -10.5
- Kyle Hendricks -11
- Miles Mastrobuoni -12
- Isaac Paredes -14
- Christopher Morel -20.5
*Taillon into third, Hodge into solo fifth, Miller up to +11. Swanson down to -9, Paredes down to solo second to last, Alcantara’s first appearance in H&G at -1.
**Alcantara is the 52nd Cub to appear in H&G this year.
Up Next: Kyle Hendricks makes what is likely the last start of his Cub career. I will one more time wish and hope that Kyle turns back the clock. The Cubs get their first look at 2023 first round pick of the Reds, Rhett Lowder. In five starts, he’s thrown 25⅔ innings and yielded just four earned runs. He does yield some walks (11). Hopefully the Cubs will be patient.