The Cubs shut out the Nationals 5-0 and take three of four.
You can only ever beat the team that is scheduled to play you. There is a pretty high amount of randomness in scheduling. I suspect the schedule did the Cubs no favors in 2024. There were a lot of subpar teams baked into the last half the season and particularly the last 40 games or so. When the Cubs were reeling in May and June, it would have been nice to have some of these lesser teams to keep the team from getting into a funk.
There’s never any value to things you can’t control. Off the top of my head, I thought that in 2023 it was the other way. The schedule was a little more front loaded. The schedule was rough down the stretch and the Cubs indeed struggled as the tension ratcheted up. Even to the extent that MLB wanted to try to control such a thing, it’s hard to know. If you sat down right now to tell me who the 10 best teams would be by the end of next year, the odds are you’d only get about six or seven of them right. A combination of injuries and over and under performance always alter the landscape of baseball year over year.
None of that even gets into player movement. The schedule is already out for next year and it’s hard to look ahead and prognosticate. Even in football where their schedule is a small cross section of teams, experts sit down, go through the schedule and are often wildly off projecting an individual team’s record.
So you play the hand you are dealt, for better or for worse. The Cubs took care of business over the weekend, taking three out of four and looking pretty good doing it. Two of the three wins featured dominating pitching performance, one was led by the offense and they ran into a strong pitching performance in the other game.
With the three wins, the Cubs go into the last week of the season needing three wins to match last year’s total. They’ll have six tries. Four of six nudges their record forward. Save for a leaky bullpen, this team had 90-win talent. With a dominant bullpen, the team could have challenged for a division title rather than finishing a distant second.
On the field Sunday, we saw Shōta Imanaga dominate one more time. He moves his record to 15-3. The win stat gets a lot of scorn because it spent too long being over valued as a stat. He’s likely to finish with the second best winning percentage in baseball. Interestingly, Chris Sale, the only pitcher ahead of him (18-3) also tried to pull a team across the finish line, largely singlehandedly. The Braves are 22-7 when Sale Starts and 63-64 when he doesn’t. When Imanaga starts, the Cubs are 23-6, 57-70 otherwise.
I am fully aware of some of the truly remarkable seasons across baseball. That said, I hope Shōta gets some rightful downballot recognition for the amazing season he had in his own right and the impact it had for this team. I will note that for all of the (justifiable) hubbub around Paul Skenes, for all of his awesomeness, it only translated to a 14-8 record for his team in games that he started. And, of course, it is not in any way Paul’s fault that the Pirates lost eight times when he started. I count a grand total of four rough starts (two against the Cubs) and the Pirates were 2-2 in those games. Hard to blame the starter when the team loses 7-6 after he allowed one run over six.
Shōta had a terrific season for the Cubs. He is one of the reasons to be optimistic about this team going forward. He adapted quite well to pitching in MLB. The Cubs avoided throwing him very often on only four days rest. But to his credit, he was 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA over six such starts. One of his huge keys, he allowed only 28 walks in 29 starts. That’s one heck of a way to stay out of trouble. No doubt Fergie Jenkins smiles when he watches Imanaga out there in Cubbie pinstripes.
Let’s find three stars from a beautiful Sunday win.
Three Stars:
- Shōta gets my top spot. Six hits, no walks, four strikeouts in seven innings.
- Mike Tauchman got a rare start, slugged a homer and drew two walks. He got squeezed out with the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. I hope he gets a decent contract to be part of someone else’s outfield next year.
- Miguel Amaya cooled off some after going ballistic, but continues to provide some offensive value. He had a pair of hits, one a homer and drove in two runs.
*For giggles, Michael Busch also had a pair of hits, one a homer. So the Cubs got offensive production from Mike, Miguel and Michael. In fact, the derivatives of Michael combined for five hits, two walks, three homers and four runs batted in. The remainder of the team combined for two hits, three walks and one run batted in.
Game 156, September 22: Cubs 5, Nationals 0 (80-76)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Shōta Imanaga (.259). 7 IP, 26 BF, 6 H, 4 K (W 15-3)
- Hero: Mike Tauchman (.121). 1-2, HR, 2 BB, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Miguel Amaya (.084). 2-3, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Patrick Wisdom (-.050). 0-4
- Goat: Miles Mastrobuoni (-.021). 0-3
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.007). 0-2, BB, R
WPA Play of the Game: Mike Tauchman’s solo shot leading off the first for the Cubs (.101)
*Nationals Play of the Game: James Wood doubled leading off the fourth with the Nationals down two. (.089)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Patrick Wisdom (31 of 64 votes) ahead of Someone else (16 – stand in for no one) and Hayden Wesneski (15).
Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Shōta Imanaga +20.5
- Seiya Suzuki +15.5
- Jameson Taillon +15
- Christian Bethancourt +14
- Javier Assad +12.5
- Jordan Wicks -10.5
- Kyle Hendricks -11
- Isaac Paredes -12
- Miguel Amaya -13
- Christopher Morel -20.5
Rizzo Award Cumulative Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Shōta Imanaga +23.5
- Seiya Suzuki +15.5
- Jameson Taillon +15
- Christian Bethancourt +14
- Javier Assad +12.5
- Kyle Hendricks -11
- Miles Mastrobuoni/Isaac Paredes/Miguel Amaya -12
- Christopher Morel -20.5
*I feel somewhat confident saying that Imanaga has nailed down the Rizzo award. Mathematically, there are at least a few players who could catch him, Seiya Suzuki likely has to go ballistic this week to change the standings at the top.
**Tauchman up to +6.5, Amaya into a tie for second to last. Wisdom down to -7, Mastrobuoni back into the bottom five, PCA down to -5.5.
Up Next: The Cubs face a Phillies team that is 92-64 and enters the last week of the season looking to nail down the best record in the NL. The Phillies have one of the best home records in baseball which speaks on two levels about this series. A tall task for the Cubs and made taller by the Phillies having plenty to play for.
Nate Pearson (2-2, 4.71) has been good as a Cub. He hasn’t started a game at the big league level since 2021. He’s certainly not stretched out. But this will be an opportunity to get a little longer look at him.